{
 "id": "line-movement-study",
 "title": "Candidate Pick6 target transitions and sportsbook observations",
 "measured_at": "2026-11-03T20:02:59.685Z",
 "freeze": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z",
 "definition": {
  "q1": "Sample: every pickable_market_id in pick6_capture_snapshots before the freeze. Numerator: ids seen with more than one target_value.",
  "q2": "Sample: every pick6_changes row before the freeze. Classes are exclusive: line, then a same-side multiplier difference, then an is_paused flip, otherwise metadata.",
  "q3": "Sample: single-athlete pickables with a two-sided (More and Less) row in at least two captures before the freeze. Unit: two consecutive captures of one pickable. Numerator: target_value differs.",
  "q4": "Sample: every history row on source espn-draftkings before the freeze. Unit: consecutive stored quotes of one event, market and side. Numerators: line differs, American price differs.",
  "disclosed": "The tables' structure was inspected before the definition was fixed, because the two-sided row and the market id behaviour had to be understood to define a move. No threshold or exclusion was changed after the final run."
 },
 "q1": {
  "market_ids": 13880,
  "changed_target": 0
 },
 "q2": {
  "total": 2459,
  "line": 0,
  "multiplier": 2242,
  "availability": 45,
  "metadata": 172,
  "by_league": [
   {
    "sport": "CBB",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 15,
    "availability": 0,
    "metadata": 0,
    "total": 15
   },
   {
    "sport": "CFB",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 150,
    "availability": 5,
    "metadata": 33,
    "total": 188
   },
   {
    "sport": "CS",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 0,
    "availability": 0,
    "metadata": 8,
    "total": 8
   },
   {
    "sport": "NBA",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 1044,
    "availability": 14,
    "metadata": 50,
    "total": 1108
   },
   {
    "sport": "NFL",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 423,
    "availability": 12,
    "metadata": 10,
    "total": 445
   },
   {
    "sport": "NHL",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 559,
    "availability": 14,
    "metadata": 28,
    "total": 601
   },
   {
    "sport": "SOCCER",
    "line": 0,
    "multiplier": 51,
    "availability": 0,
    "metadata": 43,
    "total": 94
   }
  ],
  "selection_id": {
   "selections_compared": 2611,
   "rotated_with_multiplier_change": 2279,
   "rotated_with_same_multiplier": 0,
   "multiplier_change_without_rotation": 0
  },
  "classifier_cross_check": {
   "rows": 2459,
   "agree_with_mapLandingChange": 2459,
   "agree_with_gate_classifier": 2459
  }
 },
 "q3": {
  "pickable_captures": 2230,
  "pickable_captures_with_multiple_two_sided_rows": 0,
  "two_sided_pickables": 996,
  "excluded_single_observation": 584,
  "overall": {
   "transitions": 1234,
   "moved": 287,
   "eligible_pickables": 412,
   "moved_pickables": 120,
   "up": 120,
   "down": 167,
   "median_abs_move": 2,
   "p90_abs_move": 5,
   "moved_live": 241,
   "transitions_live": 305,
   "moved_not_live": 46,
   "transitions_not_live": 929,
   "moved_with_new_market_id": 287,
   "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 5,
   "median_gap_minutes": 17.97,
   "p90_gap_minutes": 76.57,
   "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T03:01:27.231Z",
   "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:46:06.508Z"
  },
  "by_league": [
   {
    "sport": "NHL",
    "transitions": 478,
    "moved": 10,
    "eligible_pickables": 176,
    "moved_pickables": 9,
    "up": 2,
    "down": 8,
    "median_abs_move": 1,
    "p90_abs_move": 1,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 10,
    "transitions_not_live": 478,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 10,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 20.53,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 76.57,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T17:46:29.708Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:24:59.240Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "NBA",
    "transitions": 319,
    "moved": 248,
    "eligible_pickables": 107,
    "moved_pickables": 98,
    "up": 105,
    "down": 143,
    "median_abs_move": 2,
    "p90_abs_move": 6,
    "moved_live": 241,
    "transitions_live": 305,
    "moved_not_live": 7,
    "transitions_not_live": 14,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 248,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 5,
    "median_gap_minutes": 13.99,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 130.1,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T03:01:27.231Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:36:36.151Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "NFL",
    "transitions": 254,
    "moved": 27,
    "eligible_pickables": 38,
    "moved_pickables": 11,
    "up": 11,
    "down": 16,
    "median_abs_move": 1,
    "p90_abs_move": 2,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 27,
    "transitions_not_live": 254,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 27,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 5.14,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 18.91,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T16:40:24.553Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:46:02.496Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "CS",
    "transitions": 112,
    "moved": 0,
    "eligible_pickables": 50,
    "moved_pickables": 0,
    "up": 0,
    "down": 0,
    "median_abs_move": null,
    "p90_abs_move": null,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 0,
    "transitions_not_live": 112,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 8.37,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 10.23,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:20:03.650Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:30:34.012Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "LOL",
    "transitions": 32,
    "moved": 2,
    "eligible_pickables": 16,
    "moved_pickables": 2,
    "up": 2,
    "down": 0,
    "median_abs_move": 0.5,
    "p90_abs_move": 0.5,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 2,
    "transitions_not_live": 32,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 2,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 92.83,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 175.31,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:35:46.109Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:46:06.508Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "UFC",
    "transitions": 28,
    "moved": 0,
    "eligible_pickables": 14,
    "moved_pickables": 0,
    "up": 0,
    "down": 0,
    "median_abs_move": null,
    "p90_abs_move": null,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 0,
    "transitions_not_live": 28,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 5.17,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 10.31,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:01:09.206Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:01:11.675Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "SOCCER",
    "transitions": 10,
    "moved": 0,
    "eligible_pickables": 10,
    "moved_pickables": 0,
    "up": 0,
    "down": 0,
    "median_abs_move": null,
    "p90_abs_move": null,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 0,
    "transitions_not_live": 10,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 18.98,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 18.98,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:25:28.659Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:25:28.659Z"
   },
   {
    "sport": "CFB",
    "transitions": 1,
    "moved": 0,
    "eligible_pickables": 1,
    "moved_pickables": 0,
    "up": 0,
    "down": 0,
    "median_abs_move": null,
    "p90_abs_move": null,
    "moved_live": 0,
    "transitions_live": 0,
    "moved_not_live": 0,
    "transitions_not_live": 1,
    "moved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "unmoved_with_new_market_id": 0,
    "median_gap_minutes": 0.07,
    "p90_gap_minutes": 0.07,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:45:43.159Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:45:43.159Z"
   }
  ],
  "first_vs_last": [
   {
    "sport": "NHL",
    "pickables": 176,
    "net_changed": 8
   },
   {
    "sport": "NBA",
    "pickables": 107,
    "net_changed": 96
   },
   {
    "sport": "CS",
    "pickables": 50,
    "net_changed": 0
   },
   {
    "sport": "NFL",
    "pickables": 38,
    "net_changed": 11
   },
   {
    "sport": "LOL",
    "pickables": 16,
    "net_changed": 2
   },
   {
    "sport": "UFC",
    "pickables": 14,
    "net_changed": 0
   },
   {
    "sport": "SOCCER",
    "pickables": 10,
    "net_changed": 0
   },
   {
    "sport": "CFB",
    "pickables": 1,
    "net_changed": 0
   }
  ]
 },
 "q4": {
  "source": "espn-draftkings",
  "by_market": {
   "moneyline": {
    "history_rows": 216,
    "transitions": 32,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 32
   },
   "spread": {
    "history_rows": 230,
    "transitions": 36,
    "line_moves": 14,
    "price_changes": 36
   },
   "total": {
    "history_rows": 243,
    "transitions": 49,
    "line_moves": 26,
    "price_changes": 45
   }
  },
  "by_league_market": [
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "EPL",
    "history_rows": 6,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.152Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:11:28.659Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "MLB",
    "history_rows": 2,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "MLS",
    "history_rows": 18,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.207Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:31.231Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "NBA",
    "history_rows": 48,
    "transitions": 8,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 8,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.247Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:37:36.733Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "NCAAB",
    "history_rows": 32,
    "transitions": 4,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 4,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.535Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:25:26.281Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "NCAAF",
    "history_rows": 42,
    "transitions": 10,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 10,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.922Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:26:22.489Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "NFL",
    "history_rows": 28,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.312Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:22:20.385Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "moneyline",
    "sport": "NHL",
    "history_rows": 40,
    "transitions": 10,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 10,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.379Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:54:29.272Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "EPL",
    "history_rows": 4,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.152Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:11:28.659Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "MLB",
    "history_rows": 2,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "MLS",
    "history_rows": 12,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.207Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:31.231Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "NBA",
    "history_rows": 46,
    "transitions": 6,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 6,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.247Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:36:22.786Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "NCAAB",
    "history_rows": 52,
    "transitions": 6,
    "line_moves": 6,
    "price_changes": 6,
    "median_abs_line_move": 1,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.974Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:20:38.269Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "NCAAF",
    "history_rows": 50,
    "transitions": 18,
    "line_moves": 8,
    "price_changes": 18,
    "median_abs_line_move": 0.75,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.922Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:26:22.489Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "NFL",
    "history_rows": 28,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.312Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:22:20.385Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "spread",
    "sport": "NHL",
    "history_rows": 36,
    "transitions": 6,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 6,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.379Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T18:30:54.559Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "EPL",
    "history_rows": 5,
    "transitions": 1,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 1,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.152Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T16:40:38.650Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "MLB",
    "history_rows": 2,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.052Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "MLS",
    "history_rows": 12,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:29.207Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:31.231Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "NBA",
    "history_rows": 54,
    "transitions": 14,
    "line_moves": 10,
    "price_changes": 12,
    "median_abs_line_move": 1,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.247Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:43:14.253Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "NCAAB",
    "history_rows": 58,
    "transitions": 12,
    "line_moves": 6,
    "price_changes": 12,
    "median_abs_line_move": 1,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.974Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:37:37.816Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "NCAAF",
    "history_rows": 50,
    "transitions": 18,
    "line_moves": 10,
    "price_changes": 16,
    "median_abs_line_move": 1,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.922Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:15:03.323Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "NFL",
    "history_rows": 28,
    "transitions": 0,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 0,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.312Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T05:22:20.385Z"
   },
   {
    "market": "total",
    "sport": "NHL",
    "history_rows": 34,
    "transitions": 4,
    "line_moves": 0,
    "price_changes": 4,
    "median_abs_line_move": null,
    "first_observed_at": "2026-11-03T04:14:28.379Z",
    "last_observed_at": "2026-11-03T19:48:53.369Z"
   }
  ]
 },
 "limits": [
  "One retained day of capture. Nothing here describes a season, a typical week or any league's normal behaviour.",
  "Changes between captures are unobserved. Candidate target switches are not verified primary-line moves, so these counts are neither complete nor a lower bound on primary moves. Captures with more than one two-sided row for a pickable are excluded from candidate transitions.",
  "Two-sided rows are candidate observations only. The retained model does not preserve the provider defaultPickableMarketId, so switching between these rows cannot establish a primary-line move, a settlement change or an independently observed price change.",
  "Selected public categories only, not a full board. A pickable's capture frequency depends on the collector's rotation.",
  "A multiplier is not decimal odds, a probability or an entry payout. No result here implies an edge or predicts an outcome.",
  "Sportsbook rows are ESPN-attributed DraftKings mainlines, observed through ESPN, not direct DraftKings access."
 ]
}